Industry executives have stated that discussions between US securities regulators and asset management companies regarding the listing of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have entered into key technical details, indicating that the agency may soon approve these products. Thirteen companies, including Grayscale Investments, BlackRock (BLK.N), Invesco, and ARK Investments, are submitting applications to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for Bitcoin price-tracking ETFs, pending approval.

Traders must remember that the rally from 25,000 to 38,000 is primarily built upon the assumption that the SEC will approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF. The SEC is still in an open lawsuit with Coinbase, which is expected to be the primary counterparty (prime broker and custodian) for various Bitcoin Spot ETF applicants, and the SEC sued Coinbase in June. Each of the four crypto bull markets (2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021) was associated with a novel way to acquire Bitcoins. With the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF, moving fiat from any bank into Bitcoin would then become possible.

During Bitcoin halving years, we have seen rallies of +186% (2012), +126% (2016) and +297% (2020). At a Bitcoin price of 40,000 per coin, twenty-five thousand coins equate to $1 billion – or 250,000 Bitcoins equate to $10 billion. Compare this to the approximately 328,125 Bitcoins that were (will be) mined in 2023. A BlackRock Bitcoin ETF could scoop up 76% of all the supply from the mining community – not even considering that rewards will be cut in half from April 2024 onwards. Only 5.8 million of the 19.4 million mined Bitcoins have been moved during the last year, signaling that 70% of coins are just held for longer. 2.4 million Bitcoins appear to have been moved during the last six months, and this short-term holder supply could indeed be seen as the true free-float of the Bitcoin market.

Investment giant BlackRock has disclosed in its latest filing to the US SEC that it has secured $100,000 in "seed capital" for its proposed physically-backed bitcoin ETF. The filing states: "Seed capital investors have agreed to purchase $100,000 in shares on October 27, 2023, and deliver 4,000 shares at a price of $25 per share ('Seed Shares')." (CoinDesk)

Data shows that the closing price of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) was slightly higher than $141, with a 5.5% increase, and has risen 320% since the beginning of the year. Bitcoin miners Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) both saw their closing prices rise by more than 8%, with year-to-date (YTD) increases of 337% and 345%, respectively. The daily increase of cryptocurrency investment company Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) was close to 12%, with a cumulative increase of 155% for the year; MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw a daily increase of over 6.5%, with a cumulative increase of 288% for the year. IG Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore said that before the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States, investors will see cryptocurrency stocks as a way to obtain exposure to cryptocurrency risks. As Bitcoin prices rise, it will stimulate enthusiasm and increase trading volume and participation in the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote on X platform that BlackRock has submitted the second revised S-1 document (prospectus) for its Bitcoin spot ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust) to the US SEC. Bitwise had also submitted a second revised S-1 document earlier.

According to a blog post by Grayscale, in ETF form, GBTC's stock is expected to track Bitcoin's price more closely, which means any premium or discount in GBTC's stock price is expected to disappear. As of November 29, 2023, GBTC's assets under management were $23.4 billion, with a discount of 8.09%, or $1.89 billion. This means that assuming the current discount disappears, GBTC will release approximately $1.89 billion in value to investors through arbitrage mechanisms once it is listed on NYSE Arca and becomes an ETF.

Michael Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, predicts that Bitcoin will return to its previous peak within a year due to the increasing expectation of the approval of the first Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). At the same time, interest in Bitcoin ETFs is also surging, indicating that regulated and accredited investors' institutional interest in BTC is recovering due to the large number of applications for Bitcoin ETFs submitted in the United States. Novogratz stated that the uncertainty of the upcoming election year may further stimulate people's interest in digital assets.

Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, commented on the recent settlement agreement between Binance.US and the US Department of Justice in an interview with Bloomberg TV's Sonali Basak. He believes that this settlement is a positive development for Binance and the broader cryptocurrency industry, reducing the risks and concerns associated with dealing with Binance. Novogratz believes that after the crash in 2022, the industry will become cleaner and more stable, with many bad actors being eliminated. He remains optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, especially with the expected launch of a spot ETF in the US in 2024. Novogratz predicts that a large influx of investment into Bitcoin could push up prices, especially against the backdrop of a Fed rate cut cycle.

Pando Asset, a Swiss asset management company, has applied for a Bitcoin ETF in the United States and has submitted an S-1 form to the SEC.