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MIIX Capital: Crypto Weekly report(0415-0421):Post-Halving, the Sentiment is Bullish, and The Bull-Bear Battle is Fierce.

《Wheatfield with Crows》 —— Vincent van Gogh

Introduction

As Powell comments on inflation data, investors are betting on only one to two rate cuts this year. Although leverage in the market has been gradually cleared and BTC's fourth halving is completed, BTC prices are still under significant pressure.

1Investment and Financing Observation

Last week, there were a total of 34 investment and financing events in the crypto market, up 25.9% compared to the previous week. However, the total funding amounted to $144 million, down 68.2% compared to the previous week:

In the DeFi sector, 11 investment and financing events were announced, including the completion of a $15 million Series A financing by the on-chain financial platform Centrifuge, led by ParaFi Capital and Greenfield.

In the blockchain gaming sector, 3 investment and financing events were announced, including a $10 million financing for the crypto gaming studio AVALON, led by BITKRAFT Ventures and HASHED.

In the infrastructure and tools sector, 8 investment and financing events were announced, including a $5 million financing for the account abstraction application Plena, with participation from Big Brain Holdings among others.

In the NFT & Metaverse sector, there was 1 investment and financing event, with the Bitcoin NFT project INK raising $10 million.

In the DePIN sector, there were 2 investment and financing events, including a $7.5 million seed extension financing for SendingNetwork, which focuses on Web3 communication.

Other areas such as Web3/cryptocurrency announced 9 financings, including a $10 million Series A financing for the real estate equity mortgage lender and tokenization platform Homium, led by Sorenson Impact Group and Avalanche's Blizzard Fund.

From a week-on-week perspective, the number of investment and financing transactions in the crypto market rebounded significantly last week, but the total funding decreased sharply. The market heat is gradually cooling down. In the subdivided fields, investment and financing amounts last week still focused on the infrastructure direction. Among VCs, the most active institution this week was Electric Capital, mainly focusing on infrastructure and DeFi sectors.

About Puffer Restaking Project:
Puffer is a native liquidity restaking platform built on Eigenlayer, introducing native liquidity restaking tokens (nLRT) that accumulate PoS and restaking rewards.

About Centrifuge RWA Protocol:
Centrifuge is a decentralized asset financing protocol that unlocks liquidity for real-world assets, allowing borrowers to finance their real-world assets without banks or other intermediaries.

About Thruster Blast Native DEX:
Utilizing Blast's native yield, custom liquidity solutions, and a more user-friendly interface, Thruster benefits traders, LPs, and developers.

2Industry Data

Market Rebounded After Decline, BTC Bull Power Still Dominant

In the past week, bearish forces dominated the market trend, with BTC falling below $60,000 and ETH below $3,000, leading to spreading panic in the market. From the perspective of options indicators, although the bullishness of ETH is relatively weak and its ability to lead the market is limited, BTC's bullish power still remains. After the completion of the halving, BTC is likely to continue to lead the market.

The trend of option prices represents the risk tendency of whale positions. Last week, the sharp drop in call option prices, the far higher prices of put options than call options, and the medium and long-term options falling close to the zero axis had the most direct impact on market sentiment, but BTC bulls were not weakened, showing obvious rebound performance.

Social Indicators Reflect Upward Trend Stages

Santiment's social trend indicators show: since late March, the number of mentions of "bull market" or "bull market cycle" on cryptocurrency social media has been declining, while the number of mentions of "bear market" or "bear cycle" has been steadily increasing, and mentions of other key words such as "buying on dips" have also begun to decline. Combined with historical data and market performance, rebounding is likely to become the stage trend of the market.

Santiment's social trend indicators data mainly comes from the analysis of content information on Telegram, Reddit, X, and 4Chan;

In terms of historical data correlation performance, the increase in the number of mentions of the keyword "bear market" indicates an increase in the probability of a market rebound; the decrease in the number of mentions of the keyword "buying on dips" indicates a weakening of BTC selling pressure;

BounceBit TVL Surpasses $1 Billion

Data from the BounceBit official website: on April 21st, its TVL reached $1.042 billion, including $818 million worth of Bitcoin, $68.85 million worth of USDT, and 77.83% of native assets pledged by Bitcoin.

BounceBit investors include Blockchain Capital, Binance Labs, OKX Ventures, etc., and the first phase of Binance's Megadrop is BounceBit, suggesting investors should pay close attention to it.

BounceBit is a native BTC collateral chain that adopts a PoS mechanism, introduces a dual-token collateral system using native BTC security, and has full EVM compatibility. Through the CeFi + DeFi framework, BounceBit allows BTC holders to earn income from multiple sources.

Base Chain Sets Historical Record for Contract Deployment

Token Terminal data: In recent days, the number of daily contract deployers on Base Chain exceeded Arbitrum and BSC, reaching 21,700, setting a historical record, becoming the second only to Ethereum in public chains (Base protocol leader Jesse Pollak's goal is to reach 1 million developers). According to Coin98 Analytics statistics, Base Chain not only has a significant increase in TVL, but also far surpasses Ethereum's many L2 ecological daily transaction growth.

Base Chain's impressive data performance reflects Coinbase's strong position in the market competition with Binance and other platforms. As a listed compliance platform, allowing developers to access over 110 million verified users and $80 billion in assets in the Coinbase ecosystem, it is its greatest attraction to developers.

3VC Holdings

Note: The above data is from https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/ , and the statistical time is 17:00 on April 22, 2024 (UTC + 8).

4This Week’s Focus

April 22nd:

  • The withdrawal of Eigenpie LST provided by SubDAO under Magpie's will be launched on April 22nd;
  • Southeast Asia Blockchain Week will be held in Bangkok, Thailand from April 22nd to 28th, 2024;
  • According to SEC documents, Ripple should submit its response to the $1.95 billion fine judgment by April 22nd, 2024;
  • The SPACE ID token ID will unlock 18.49 million tokens worth about $15.29 million on April 22nd, accounting for 4.29% of the circulating supply;
  • Merlin's ecological DEX MerlinSwap will start the esMP staking party at 14:00 Beijing time on April 22nd;

April 23rd:

  • NFT market Magic Eden will launch the Runes trading platform on April 23rd;
  • The AI project jointly developed by StarkWare and decentralized AI project Giza will be announced at the Starknet event in Berlin on April 23rd;
  • The Cartesi token CTSI will unlock 21.43 million tokens worth about $4.66 million on April 23rd, accounting for 2.73% of the circulating supply;

April 24th:

  • US weekly EIA crude oil inventories;
  • The AI Crypto Hackathon hosted by BeWater will officially start on April 24th, and the registration channel will be open on the BeWater platform;
  • QnA3.AI's second round of airdrop collection will be open until 20:00 on April 24th, with 5 million tokens available for 200,000 BNB and Solana chain users to claim;

April 25th:

  • US weekly initial jobless claims;
  • Registration for the BNB Chain second quarter online hackathon will end on April 25th, with a prize pool of $470,000;
  • The NFT market Magic Eden will launch on Base network on April 25th;

April 26th:

  • US March core PCE price index annual rate;
  • Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April;
  • YGG will unlock 16.69 million tokens worth about $15.71 million on April 27th at 22:00, accounting for 5.33% of the circulating supply.

April 27th:

  • io.net launched the first phase of the points reward program on March 1st, continuing until April 28th;
  • The SingularityNET token AGIX will unlock 8.84 million tokens worth about $8.78 million on April 28th at 8:00, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating supply.

5Conclusion

Last week, the number of investment and financing transactions in the crypto market rebounded significantly, but the total funding decreased sharply, and institutional investors became more cautious. In addition, the price of bullish options fell, the price of bearish options was far higher than that of bullish options, and the market sentiment reflected by social indicators also showed a low state.

This week, the market trend is showing a rebound trend, especially after BTC's fourth halving, with the breakthrough growth of BounceBit TVL and the launch of Runes, the on-chain data of BTC is extremely active. Strong ecological performances such as Base and TON have almost been unaffected by market changes, and the probability of rebounding is likely to be the stage trend next. However, the bull-bear game is still intense.

In addition, during the Token2049 conference, projects in AI, Restaking, RWA, BTC ecology, and other tracks are active and hot, which may become important factors driving further market warming. It is recommended that investors remain vigilant, pay attention to risk management, and focus on the innovation and development of relevant tracks.

Note: All of the above opinions are not investment advice. If there are any inappropriate points, please feel free to leave a message to correct them.

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