Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Bitcoin halving 2024: 5 ways it’s different this time

Validated Media

Another Bitcoin halving has come and gone, the fourth so far, and this one was like no other before it, with institutional investment playing a key role for the very first time.

Bitcoin halvings have been historically associated with one essential similarity — a subsequent spike in BTC price, which often occurs some time after the halving.

While the community has yet to find out whether the fourth halving will follow the same path, some things are already different about the Bitcoin halving 2024.

Crypto user base up at least 400% since the 2020 halving

While the speed of new Bitcoin generation has decreased since the first halving, the demand has not stood still.

Since the previous Bitcoin halving — which occurred in May 2020 — the global crypto user base has added at least around 400 million users, based on various sources.

In 2020, the number of crypto owners worldwide counted around 100 million users, according to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) estimations. By the end of 2023, the number of global crypto users surged to as high as 580 million people, as estimated by crypto exchange Crypto.com.

Global cryptocurrency users from January 2023 to December 2023. Source. Crypto.com

Despite Bitcoin being the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and the oldest, it apparently has fewer users than the entire crypto ecosystem.

According to data from Technopedia, approximately 2.7% of the global population is estimated to own Bitcoin as of 2024, which translates to around 219 million people. If accurate, the estimated figure is up around 208% from 71 million Bitcoin users four years ago, as calculated by Crypto.com.

With Bitcoin or most other cryptocurrencies, most user count estimations can not be 100% accurate, as on-chain transaction analysis is often incapable of differentiating between long-term holders and lost BTC, as well as other factors.

2024 pre-halving Bitcoin rally has not been seen before

One of the biggest differences between the fourth Bitcoin halving and the three past halvings is that the price has seen extraordinary growth pre-halving in 2024.

In the previous cycles, Bitcoin price recorded breakouts after the halving rather than before, and new all-time highs came roughly one year following the halving date.

For example, Bitcoin didn’t break out above the previously set ATH of $20,000 before the 2020 halving. In that cycle, the Bitcoin price only crossed ATH 10 months after halving. The picture is much different this time around.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached all-time highs right before the halving event, setting a record of $73,600 on March 13, 2024.

Such a breakout has never been seen before, and multiple analysts agree, including eToro crypto analyst Simon Peters.

Miners ‘better shaped’ for halving this time

The never-seen-before Bitcoin price appreciation pre-halving has potentially had a positive impact on the mining industry as miners obtained more control over mining costs.

“In comparison to the previous halving, it appears miners are in better shape overall in terms of lower levels of debt and potentially better control over their costs, such as electricity,” Fidelity Digital Assets’ director of research Chris Kuiper told Cointelegraph, adding:

“What’s also helping miners this cycle is the price appreciation before the halving — something that also hasn’t been seen in previous cycles.”

Since the third halving in May 2020, Bitcoin mining energy consumption has significantly increased, surging from around 50 Terawatt hours (Twh) to 99 Twh on April 18, 2024.

Bitcoin energy consumption. Source: Digiconomist

At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin network’s energy consumption powered by renewable energy sources has also increased, with renewables accounting for 54.5% BTC mining consumption as of January 2024, according to Bitcoin ESG Forecast. As of September 2020, this figure stood at 39%, according to data from CCAF.

First Bitcoin halving with spot BTC ETFs in the U.S.

One of the most straightforward things about Bitcoin halving 2024 is that this halving is the first ever with BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF) enabled in the United States.

After many years of efforts, spot Bitcoin ETFs debuted trading in January 2024, opening exposure to Bitcoin for institutional investors.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen “blockbuster success,” which apparently reflects a spike in demand for Bitcoin.

  Source: Eric Balchunas

Since the first day of trading, all ten spot Bitcoin ETFs combined have increased their holdings by at least 220,000 BTC, which is worth around $14 billion at the time of writing.

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted the biggest amount of inflows among 10 BTC ETFs, with its holdings surging more than 10,000% from just 2,621 BTC on the trading debut to 273,140 BTC on April 18.

M2 CEO Stefan Kimmel said:

Looking at the broader landscape, while halving garners attention, we are cognizant that it's just a part of a larger narrative. The confluence of ETFs, quantitative easing, and halving will define the future contours of the market.

Bitcoin became more globally decentralized and secure

Bitcoin has also significantly improved in terms of network security and decentralization. Since 2020 — when most new Bitcoin was mined in Mainland China — Bitcoin has emerged as a more distributed network.

Just four years ago, Bitcoin mining in China amounted to nearly 80% of Bitcoin’s total mining hash rate globally. As of February 2024, the biggest Bitcoin mining countries are the United States with 40% of the total hashrate, as well as China and Russia, accounting for 15% and 12%, respectively, according to Hashlab Mining founder Jaran Mellerud.

Geographic distribution of Bitcoin hash rate between September 2019 and January 2022. Source: CBECI

“This geographic decentralization is continuing as miners migrate to Africa and Latin America to take advantage of cheaper electricity prices,” Mellerud said.

Additionally, the Bitcoin blockchain has become more resistant to attacks as its hash rate has surged five times since the previous halving.

“It now requires five times more computing power and associated electricity supply, electrical infrastructure, and mining hardware to attack the network,” Hashlab Mining founder noted.

BTC
Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Cointime May 3rd News Express

    1. The 133rd Ethereum ACDC meeting: The goal is to complete the devnet within 7-10 days

  • Paribu wallet address transferred more than 4 trillion PEPE, worth about 31 million US dollars

    According to Whale Alert monitoring, the Paribu wallet address transferred 4,049,371,347,309 PEPE tokens worth approximately $31,091,073 via the Ethereum blockchain at around 17:20 today, and all tokens were transferred to an address starting with "0xa23c".

  • Huaxia Virtual Asset ETF's AUM exceeds HK$1 billion, while Bosera and Harvest AUM both exceed HK$500 million

    According to the latest virtual asset ETF asset management scale data from HKEX as of May 3rd:1. Huaxia Ether ETF has an asset management scale of HKD 146.16 million, and Huaxia Bitcoin ETF has reached HKD 880.25 million, with a total amount exceeding HKD 1 billion, reaching HKD 1.02641 billion;2. Bosera HashKey Ether ETF has an asset management scale of HKD 96.59 million, and Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF has reached HKD 478.09 million, with a total of HKD 574.58 million;3. Harvest Ether ETF has an asset management scale of HKD 89.97 million, and the encrypted Bitcoin ETF has reached HKD 449.39 million, with a total of HKD 539.36 million.

  • FRIEND fell below $3, and the ecosystem TVL dropped to the $30 million range

    According to DexScreener data, the trading price of friend.tech tokens has fallen below $3 and is currently at $2.31. The current circulating supply is approximately 14.5 million. According to DeFiLlama data, the friend.tech ecosystem's TVL has dropped to the $30 million range, with a 13.6% decline over the past 7 days. Friend.tech was launched on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Base in August of last year. The ecosystem's TVL had once surpassed $50 million and is currently the 9th largest protocol on the Base chain.

  • Animoca Brands: MOCA token distribution is planned to take place around May 24

    Animoca Brands officially announced that the distribution of MOCA tokens is planned to take place around May 24th. The token release information includes:

  • NFT lending platform Blend’s total transaction volume exceeded US$6 billion, with more than 650,000 loans

    The latest data from Dune shows that the total transaction volume of Blend, an NFT lending platform under Blur, has exceeded 6 billion US dollars, reaching 6,048,459,706 US dollars at the time of writing, with a total of 659,353 loans; the total number of independent borrowing users is 10,458, and the total number of independent lending users is 4,447. The current total active loan amount is 3,347, with an active loan amount of approximately 6,013 ETH.

  • Yuga Labs will migrate the Otherside metaverse to Improbable’s Msquared

    Yuga Labs and Improbable announced the migration of Otherside Metaverse to Improbable's Msquared, which is Improbable's interconnected Metaverse network. By rebuilding Otherside, Yuga Labs will provide the community with the ability to build in large-scale environments and interoperability. Improbable and Yuga Labs also announced other news about the development of Otherside, including a large multiplayer game event in July and the launch of Otherside development toolkit World Builder ODK.

  • friend.tech has opened airdrop token applications, FRIEND is currently priced at $3.34

    According to the official website, friend.tech has opened up the airdrop of the token FRIEND for claiming, with FRIEND currently priced at $3.34. Previously reported, friend.tech will release version 2 and conduct an airdrop on May 3rd.

  • Cointime MAY 1 News Express

    1.Celsius Network destroys 94% of total supply of CEL, worth over $89 million2.USDC Treasury destroyed more than 200 million USDC3.Pike was suspected of being hacked and lost 479 ETH4.Fantom launches $6.5 million development fund, betting on safer memecoins5.Yesterday, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $162 million6.The balance of Binance Bitcoin wallet increased by 6249.36 in the past 24 hours, and 15565.89 inflows in the past 7 days7.In April, NFT sales on the Bitcoin chain exceeded US$685 million, setting the third highest monthly record in history8.On-chain content distribution agreement Metale Protocol completes additional $2 million in seed round financing9.A whale deposited 1,140 MKR into Coinbase, losing about $1.1 million10.The Bitcoin stablecoin project, bitSmiley, goes live with its Alphanet V1, marking its debut deployment on the Bitcoin Layer 2 network, Bitlayer.

  • BTC falls below $58,000

    Golden Finance reported that according to OKX market data, BTC briefly touched $57,700 and is now trading at $58,581.53, with a daily decline of 7.15%. The market is volatile, so please be prepared for risk management.