BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted in his latest blog post "Heatwave" that from mid-April to early May, US taxation will withdraw market liquidity, coupled with the continued reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the market may become extremely weak. However, starting from May 1st, with the Federal Reserve slowing down the speed of balance sheet reduction and the US Treasury using funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to begin. Hayes pointed out that the Federal Reserve has indirectly "blood transfused" the banking system by relaxing the capital requirements for banks, allowing them to hold more government bonds. The US Treasury has also been issuing short-term government bonds to absorb trillions of dollars of idle funds in the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool. Both of these measures are beneficial to improving market liquidity. However, Hayes expects that the April 15th tax deadline will withdraw a large amount of funds from the system. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is still reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. In addition, the expected Bitcoin block reward halving on April 20th may bring short-term overselling, which will bring huge pressure to the market. Hayes advises investors to be cautious in April and to deploy boldly after May. He revealed that he has already closed positions and made profits on tokens such as MEW, SOL, and NMT, and transferred funds to the Ethena platform's USDe stablecoin for pledging. Hayes said that if he can avoid the risk of losses in April, he will have sufficient ammunition in May to establish various positions of crypto assets and fully enjoy the benefits of the bull market.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that the DeFi altcoin project Ethena (ENA) could experience a massive rally once the broader crypto market resumes an uptrend. As an investor in the project, Hayes believes that ENA, which is currently trading at $1.09, could soar more than 817% from its current value. Ethena Labs, the company behind the project, has also launched a yield-earning “synthetic dollar” token called USDe, which aims to create a stable and scalable form of money in the crypto space without relying on traditional banking systems. ENA has been listed for trading on several crypto exchanges, including Binance.

I recently read a fascinating book about the history of the East India Company (EIC) called “The Anarchy” by Wiliam Dalrymple. For those unfamiliar with this chapter of European colonialism, the EIC was a joint stock company that was given a royal charter/monopoly over the trade between Britain and the Indian subcontinent. Over a few centuries, what was initially a weak and poor commercial enterprise that survived at the whim of various Indian rulers conquered the entire subcontinent and paved the way for the British Raj, which lasted from the late 19th century until 1947.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed the evolution of ownership structure and fundraising methods in the cryptocurrency industry in his latest blog post. By comparing the business model of the East India Company in history with the operating methods of modern cryptocurrency projects, Hayes explored how from Bitcoin to the first token issuance (ICO), liquidity mining (yield farming), and even the latest points system have become a natural evolution for user participation and fundraising. Hayes emphasized the fundamental difference in fundraising and attracting users between Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 projects, especially in the cryptocurrency industry, where holding tokens or points allows users to directly participate in project ownership, which is a major paradigm shift. He believes that the emergence of Bitcoin marks a new beginning, where participation is equivalent to ownership. Subsequently, ICOs as an early fundraising method allowed retail investors to participate early, while liquidity mining further incentivized participation by rewarding users for directly using the protocol. According to Hayes' analysis, the latest points system combines the strengths of both ICOs and liquidity mining. This system rewards users who interact with the protocol with points, which may be converted into tokens in the future, creating a more flexible and sustainable incentive mechanism. Hayes believes that this method can not only effectively attract and retain users, but also provide a more equitable way for retail investors to participate in the project at a lower cost in the early stages. In addition, Hayes also mentioned the potential impact of the points system on fundraising strategies for cryptocurrency projects, pointing out that this could reduce reliance on pre-selling tokens to venture capitalists and high net worth investors. He emphasized that the success of this system depends on a high level of trust between project founders and users, while also warning of potential risks and improper behavior.

According to billionaire crypto investor Arthur Hayes, New York Community Bankcorp (NYCB) is gradually moving towards bankruptcy after being downgraded to junk by Moody's due to financial risks and governance challenges. The bank's recent setbacks include a loss in earnings, a cut in dividends, and troubled loans tied to commercial real estate. Hayes predicts that Bitcoin's price will rally in response to upcoming Fed money printing, but warns that a new bailout may be necessary if NYCB and other banks' stock prices continue to plunge. Shareholders have also filed a class action lawsuit against NYCB for allegedly defrauding them by failing to disclose increasing reserves for troubled loans and cutting dividends.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expressed a pessimistic view on the future price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in social media comments. Based on a Bitcoin price chart he shared, Hayes said Bitcoin looks very heavy and believes its price will fall below $40,000. As a result, he has started to short sell and purchased put options with a strike price of $35,000 expiring on March 29. Hayes further speculated that Bitcoin's decline may continue until the US Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement on January 31.

Bitmex founder Arthur Hayes discussed the ultimate demise of Tether and other stablecoin companies. Hayes explained that Tether's business model involves acquiring US dollars and investing in government bonds, and when big banks like JPMorgan are allowed to issue fiat-backed stablecoins, they will eventually eat into Tether's market share. Although Tether has positioned itself as an excellent product in the cryptocurrency market, its position is only achieved because the US refuses to provide similar products through the banking system.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently sold all of his LOOKS and some ENS tokens at a loss. He previously bought 15.5 million LOOKS (approximately $4.5 million) from Uniswap and FTX at an average price of $0.29, and sold them yesterday, losing $2.87 million (-64%).

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes stated on social media that the stablecoin protocol Ethena's USDe will eventually replace USDT as the largest USD stablecoin. However, this will take time. Hayes himself will do his best as an advisor and mint some USDe. It is reported that the issuance of USDe has reached 50 million. The Ethena mainnet will be launched in January 2024.Earlier today, according to Scopescan data monitoring, Arthur Hayes is depositing ETH into Lido and then using stETH to mint USDe in the decentralized stablecoin project Ethena Labs. So far, he has deposited 440 ETH ($1.01 million) and received 1.01 million USDE. He still owns 5451 ETH ($12.5 million).

Scopescan monitoring shows that BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes is depositing ETH into Lido and then using stETH to mint USDe in the decentralized stablecoin project Ethena Labs. So far, he has deposited 440 ETH ($1.01 million) and received 1.01 million USDE, and he still holds 5,451 ETH ($12.5 million).