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MIIX Capital Crypto Weekly Report(0429-0505):Bottoming Phase Completed, Inflation Concerns Persist

《The Harvest》 — — Camille Pissarro

Introduction:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the unlikelihood of immediate rate hikes, leading to a global rally in risk assets. Additionally, with US non-farm payroll data falling below expectations, the possibility of a shift from a leisurely pace to a sprint in the Fed’s rate cut path may drive surges in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds, while weakening the US dollar, gold, and crude oil.

1Investment Observation:

Last week, the crypto market saw a total of 32 investment and financing events, a 10.34% increase compared to the previous week, with a total funding amount of $150 million, down 27.18% compared to the previous week:

In the DeFi sector, there were 9 financing announcements, with RWA company Securitize successfully completing a $47 million strategic financing round led by BlackRock; Ironlight also raised $12 million, with the majority of investments coming from individual investors with Wall Street backgrounds

In the CeFi field, there was 1 financing announcement, with retail contract trading platform LazyBear announcing a $4 million USDT strategic financing round, with investors and strategic partners including Gogeko Labs and DWF Labs;

In the GameFi sector, there were 6 financing announcements, including Swedish game studio Patriots Division raising $5 million for the Web3 game Shadow War;

In the infrastructure and tools sector, there were 5 financing announcements, with modular liquidity protocol Mitosis announcing a $7 million financing round, led by Amber Group and Foresight Ventures;

In the AI-related field, there was 1 financing announcement, with Web3 developer platform Airstack completing a $4 million seed round, led by Red Beard Ventures;

7 other Web3/crypto applications announced financing, including Web3 content publishing platform Paragraph completing a $5 million financing round, with participation from USV and Coinbase Ventures;

From a week-over-week perspective, the number of cryptocurrency market financing transactions increased, but the total funding amount significantly decreased, with market enthusiasm focused on RWA, GameFi, and Web3 sectors; among VCs, notable active institutions this week were BlackRock and Electric Capital, mainly focusing on asset management and SocialFi sectors.

According to Rootdata, the total financing amount in the cryptocurrency market in April was $1.025 billion, a 6.3% decrease compared to March’s $1.094 billion, and the number of financing transactions decreased by 10.5% compared to March. In terms of financing amounts by sector, the top three sectors were CeFi, DeFi, and Tools & Information Services.

About Securitize:
Securitize is a digital asset securities company whose mission is to provide shareholders with opportunities to invest and trade in alternative investments, raise funds for companies, manage shareholders, and provide potential liquidity to shareholders. Securitize has pioneered a fully digital integrated RWA platform for issuing, managing, and trading digital asset securities, compliant with existing US regulatory frameworks, with a community of over 1.2 million investors and 3,000 companies.

About Ironlight:
Ironlight, founded by Rob McGrath and Matt Celebuski, aims to tokenize private securities such as real estate, natural resources, fine arts, public infrastructure, and private equities that typically lack liquidity, with the goal of becoming a regulated tokenized RWA market under SEC supervision.

About Kiosk:
The SocialFi project Kiosk is a Farcaster client that helps creators build a community from 0 to 1 within the app. Creators can share media-rich ideas with their social graph, mint them as NFTs, gather like-minded collectors and collaborators in channels, establish custom channel economies such as tips and distributions, and chat with their community — all within the Kiosk application.

2Industry Data:

After Seven Consecutive Days of Net Outflows, US BTC Spot ETF Saw its First Net Inflow.

SoSoValue data: On May 3rd, Eastern Time, BTC spot ETF saw a total net inflow of $378 million, the first net inflow after seven consecutive days of net outflows, with Fidelity’s FBTC having the highest daily net inflow of $103 million, bringing FBTC’s total historical net inflow to $8.03 billion.

Since the listing of US BTC spot ETF, its trend has been positively correlated with market dynamics. With the ETF experiencing net inflows, the trend in recent days has begun to show a slight rebound. Additionally, the trend of net inflows for the following week is likely to strengthen, but the net inflow value for GBTC is still not high, indicating a continued small scale of inflows.

Currently, the total net asset value of BTC spot ETF is $51.021 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total BTC market value) of 4.12%, and a total historical net inflow of $11.561 billion.

Hong Kong ETF Asset Management Exceeds HK$2 Billion, but Falls Short of Expectations:

According to official data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: as of the close of May 3rd, the three Hong Kong spot virtual asset ETFs listed by Huaxia, ChinaAMC, and Bosera HashKey had a total asset management scale of HK$2.13069 billion (approximately $255 million), nearly twice the asset management scale of virtual asset futures ETFs of approximately HK$1.192 billion. Among them:

  • The total trading volume of BTC spot ETF was $27.51 million, with a total holding of 4,220 BTC and a total net asset of $250 million;
  • The total trading volume of ETH spot ETF was $4.92 million, with a total holding of 16,280 ETH and a total net asset of $48.52 million;

This data deviates significantly from the market expectations after the approval of Hong Kong ETFs. However, compared to data from Canadian ETFs and British ETNs, the data appears relatively reasonable. We need to take a more rational approach to assessing the market size and influence of Hong Kong and continue to monitor its policy dynamics.

Hong Kong spot ETF data:

Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF has an asset management scale of HK$447.22 million, and the Ethereum ETF has an asset management scale of HK$90.82 million; ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF has an asset management scale of HK$449.39 million, and the Ethereum ETF has an asset management scale of HK$89.87 million; Huaxia Bitcoin ETF has an asset management scale of HK$904.49 million, and the Ethereum ETF has an asset management scale of HK$148.9 million, with a total exceeding HK$1 billion;

Hong Kong futures ETF data:

Samsung BTC futures ETF has an asset management scale of approximately HK$135.12 million; South China Dongying Bitcoin ETF has an asset management scale of approximately HK$848.9 million; South China Dongying Ethereum ETF has an asset management scale of approximately HK$208.06 million;

ETH Stablecoin Trading Volume Breaks Monthly Record:

According to The Block, over the past three months, the monthly trading volume of stablecoins on Ethereum has continued to grow, reaching a new monthly trading volume high in April. Among them, FDUSD set a record high for monthly trading volume.

In fact, much of this data comes from the use of DAI in MEV transactions, where a large amount of DAI is minted and returned in a single transaction, significantly boosting DAI’s trading volume data. However, even excluding flash loans, stablecoin trading volume still performed well, indirectly indicating the steady rise in activity in the ETH ecosystem.

DAI trading data:

According to data from The Block, DAI’s trading volume in April reached $636 billion, accounting for the majority of the total on-chain trading volume of Ethereum stablecoins, with a total monthly trading volume of nearly $1.2 trillion. Compared to March, DAI’s trading volume more than tripled in April.

At the same time, DAI’s supply has increased by approximately $1 billion since March 7th, bringing the current total supply to $5.44 billion. Although the trading volume of other stablecoins has also increased, DAI’s share of the total stablecoin supply has slightly increased during this period.

Tesla Adds DOGE Payment Option, DOGE Surges Over 20%:

with the Dogecoin symbol displayed next to the order button for such products. Buyers only need to transfer Dogecoin to Tesla’s Dogecoin wallet and make payment. After this news came out, according to CoinGecko data, DOGE surged over 20%, surpassing the $0.168 level and currently priced at $0.162.

Although Tesla’s preparations for accepting Dogecoin payments have been long-standing, the implementation of this initiative still represents further integration between the crypto industry and traditional markets. Through Tesla’s global influence, more people are beginning to perceive and engage with crypto assets.

According to Wayback Machine, the last snapshot of the “Payment, Checkout, and Pricing” page on the Tesla official website was taken on February 28th of this year, while the Dogecoin FAQ page has been in existence since January 2022.

In addition, the products currently supported by Dogecoin payments on the Tesla official website do not include Tesla vehicles, but mainly small peripheral products such as apparel, toys, children’s electric cars, hats, stainless steel whistles, and commemorative belt buckles, none of which are sold through official channels in China.

3VC Holdings

Note: The above data is from https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/, and the statistical time is 18:00 on May 06, 2024 (UTC + 8).

4This Week’s Focus

May 7th

  • FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin’s speech on economic outlook;
  • FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams’ speech;
  • Launch of governance token MODE on L2 network Mode built on OP Stack, with a total supply of 10 billion tokens;
  • Hackathon submission phase hosted by TRON in collaboration with HTX DAO, BitTorrent Chain, and JustLend DAO continues until May 7th;
  • Bitcoin Devcon hosted by UTXO Management will be held in Hong Kong Science Park on May 7th-8th;

May 8th

  • US weekly EIA crude oil inventory data;
  • Speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson on the economy;
  • FT Crypto & Digital Assets Summit;

May 9th

  • US weekly initial jobless claims;
  • Bank of England interest rate decision announcement;
  • Bitcoin Summit (Bitcoin Asia) will be held in Hong Kong on May 9th-10th;

May 10th

  • US one-year inflation rate expectation;
  • University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index;
  • Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Bowman on financial stability risks;
  • EigenLayer token claim is scheduled to start on May 10th, distributing 5% of the token supply based on the snapshot taken on March 15, 2024;
  • Biconomy will airdrop ARB to BICO stakers, with the deadline for claiming being today;
  • Kraken will delist privacy coin Monero (XMR) from the Ireland and Belgium markets, and stop accepting deposits starting May 10th;

May 11th

  • Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Bostic;
  • Release of China’s April CPI year-on-year rate;
  • Moonbeam (GLMR) will unlock approximately 3.04 million tokens worth approximately $920,000, accounting for 0.35% of the circulating supply;

May 12th

  • Decentralized GPU cloud infrastructure Aethir’s airdrop event, Aethir Cloud Drop, ends on May 12th;
  • Jupiter LFG Launchpad’s second phase project, UpRock, is scheduled to start reputation proof and TGE events on May 12th;

5Conclusion

Although the crypto market experienced partial turbulence last week, the increase in investment and financing activities demonstrates the vitality and long-term growth potential within the industry, especially with increased investor attention on the RWA, GameFi, and Web3 sectors, which could become new market growth points. Additionally, the performance of BTC and ETH ETFs, as well as Tesla’s support for DOGE payments, indicate that crypto assets are being increasingly recognized and accepted in broader financial and consumer markets.

This week, the release of US EIA crude oil inventory data and one-year inflation rate expectations, the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, and China’s CPI year-on-year data are likely to have a significant impact on future market trends. As the Federal Reserve slows the pace of balance sheet reduction, while inflation concerns persist, improvements in market liquidity will gradually emerge. Barring extreme bearish events, the entire market is expected to enter a phase of valuation correction.

The current market still faces many uncertainties, but in the long run, with improvements in macroeconomic conditions and positive trends, as well as increased mainstream market acceptance, the potential of the crypto market will further unleash, initiating a new round of market trends.

Note: All of the above opinions are not investment advice. If there are any inappropriate points, please feel free to leave a message to correct them.

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